Advanced Financial and Risk Modelling
Macro economic, market, strategic, technological and financial drivers impacting the business are measured using probabilistic and uncertainty analysis. Long term forecasts are stochastic and driven by volatile variables. Our Models are aimed at improving both value and strategic decisions at any stage of the business. It is also for businesses committed to protect and create value.
For Private Equities, Companies, CEOs, COOs, CFOs, CROs, and analysts needing support in the elaboration of advanced Monte Carlo based stochastic models aimed at managing business variables and risks at a much deeper level
Our expertise in business strategy, risk, and advanced valuation, have given us a multidimensional understanding of complex business behaviour and patterns which allow us to build financial models with a unique value as a decision making tool.
The modelling process will depend on each case and need but the complete service includes:
- Company Description and Business Introduction: The first stage will be dedicated to analyse the business and market.
- Identification of the value – risk drivers of the business: Macro economic, market, strategic, technologic, operative, commercial and financial drivers.
- Design of the Model: The risk-value mapping is a useful tool which allows a more holistic understanding of the company and its drivers and is necessary to understand the nature of each factor (Risk type and Risk profile. For instance: Triangle function, beta general function, discrete function, etc) influencing the company’s forecast (as shown in the figure below).
- Construction: We will then work on the construction of the model itself using Monte Carlos Simulation and Palisade @Risk. All inputs will have a risk profile associated.
- Implementation: This stage will include the introduction of real data to the model including business assumptions.
- Testing, Interpretation and measurement of the outputs: We will assist you in the final test of the model. We will also help you in the process of interpretation and measurement of the outputs by analysing tornado graphs, advanced sensibility analysis, stress analysis, standard deviations, kurtosis, skewness and other parameters which are key fundamentals to mitigate risk and take business decisions.
- Training: We will train you in the use of the model and in the use of Palisade @Risk.
- Follow up: We can give you additional support periodically when required including model updates / adjustments, additional training, monitoring, etc.
Risk Modelling for Decision Making and Value Creation:
Our consulting experience in issues relating to strategy, risk, and advanced valuation, have given us a multidimensional understanding of complex business behaviour and patterns which allow us to build financial models with a unique value as a decision making tool. We use this experience to provide financial model advisory services and customized training on specific topics. Generally, a short planning engagement is sufficient to define the key decision-support requirements of a modelling process, and design the overall model architecture in the appropriate way. The process will depend on the needs of each client but the complete service includes:
- Public bidding and Tenders: Potential bidding prices are tested under different market scenarios. The final output which include a distribution of probabilities gives management a unique insight of the magnitude and nature of the risks involved which enables them to define a limit or security line to mitigate risk.
- Upside Risk and Downside Risks: Our models separate upside risks from downside risks allowing management to choose the right risks they are willing to take in any investment. Downside risk is the probability of having a decline in the value of an investment or project if the market conditions change. On the contrary upside risk is the probability of having an increase of value if the market conditions change.
- Strategic Decisions: Our models are based on measured market and strategic variables (volatilities, probabilities and standard deviations). As a consequence, our models can be used to test strategies and market opportunities.
- Predictive Analytics: The advanced model elaborated for the valuation report will remain as a company tool to review the company strategy, forecast the business, update market drivers, create valuation plans under different scenarios and improve complex decisions
Looking for a first-class business valuation consultant?
78 York Street
London, UK, W1H 1DP
6 Sir William Reid Street, Gzira, Malta